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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-B.Tate to CIN 22 for 4 yards (28-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.38 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model