Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 87

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

(1:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 87-M.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 87, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.12 EP