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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 8

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(:06) 25-G.Bernard right tackle to BAL 3 for 5 yards (93-L.Guy; 51-D.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +2.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.90 EP