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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 32

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.39 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model