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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 80

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to CLE 39, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 43 for 4 yards (45-M.Reece). PENALTY on CLE-15-M.Moore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 43.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.81 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 80, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 37, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP