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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(12:24) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LV 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-A.Cooper to LV 20 for 9 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.00 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model