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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:48) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 6, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model