4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 84

Cleveland Browns 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(13:41) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 67 yards to LV 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-A.Cooper to LV 8 for -9 yards (58-C.Kirksey; 24-J.Bademosi).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.66 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 42, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model