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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 16

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(9:26) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model