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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 5

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:37) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 5, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP