Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 77

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(4:09) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 34 yards to CLE 43, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-T.Benjamin MUFFS catch, touched at CLE 43, RECOVERED by LV-58-N.Ball at CLE 43. 58-N.Ball to CLE 43 for no gain (11-T.Benjamin). Muff occurred on a fair catch

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model