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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 38

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 36 yards to CLE 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-22-T.Jones. Cleveland challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 02:26.)

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.09 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP