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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 53

Cleveland Browns 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(14:20) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 41 yards to LV 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.97 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 14% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 86% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model