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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 3 at the 48
Los Angeles Rams 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9
What Actually Happened
(8:20) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete short left to 12-S.Bailey.
The Three Options
GO
+0.22 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.04 EP
- 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP
KICK
-1.01 EP
- 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
- 66% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT
-0.44 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
