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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 31

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 4-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.17 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model