4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to LA 3, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 15 for 12 yards (35-R.Ventrone).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model