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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to PIT 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.80 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP