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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 79

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to PIT 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.08 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP