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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to LA 9, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 29 for 20 yards (57-T.Garvin).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.93 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP