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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 12

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass short left to 18-K.Britt to LA 46 for 7 yards (41-A.Blake). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-N.Foles pass incomplete short left to 18-K.Britt (41-A.Blake).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.59 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -0.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model