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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to PIT 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP