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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(5:19) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 39 yards to MIN 12, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.83 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -3.11 EP
KICK -2.17 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.11 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model