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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 80

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:47) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 60 yards to LAC 20, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-K.Allen to LAC 20 for no gain (85-R.Ellison). PENALTY on LAC-15-D.Inman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.16 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP