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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 44

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:55) (Punt formation) 5-M.Scifres punts 37 yards to MIN 7, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-25-D.Stuckey.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.54 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.92 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.46 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP