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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:09) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 30 yards to LAC 20, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 13-K.Allen. MIN-94-J.Trattou was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.83 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model