Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 28 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(3:21) 2-D.Butler punts 33 yards to SF 44, Center-82-M.Leach. 38-J.Hayne pushed ob at ARI 19 for 37 yards (26-R.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.40 EP
53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model