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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 38

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to ARI 17, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-B.Golden to ARI 27 for 10 yards (49-B.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.90 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model