Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 40

(13:06) 5-B.Pinion punts 56 yards to ARI 21, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.67 EP
74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model