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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 12

Arizona Cardinals 40 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:49) ARI #53-Shipley reports as eligible. 30-S.Taylor up the middle to SF 10 for 2 yards (59-A.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO +3.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.94 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model