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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 47

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 10-B.Golden.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.87 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -1.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP