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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 62

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to ARI 19, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.71 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP