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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:31) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to TB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 43-B.Rainey pushed ob at TB 19 for no gain (42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.04 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model