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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to TB 30, Center-44-J.Jansen. 43-B.Rainey pushed ob at TB 45 for 15 yards (56-A.Klein).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.94 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model