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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 9

Carolina Panthers 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model