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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Carolina Panthers 34

What Actually Happened

(12:39) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 41 yards to CAR 34, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 39 for 5 yards (96-T.Fatinikun).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.41 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model