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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 35

Carolina Panthers 34 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:24) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 21 yards to TB 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.80 EP