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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.41 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP