Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

(15:00) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 41 yards to CAR 25, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 25 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.56 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model