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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 23

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.64 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model