Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 59

Detroit Lions 3 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(:18) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to SEA 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 17 for 10 yards (24-N.Lawson). DET-50-T.Lewis was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.35 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -1.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model