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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.17 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model