Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 75

Detroit Lions 3 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to SEA 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DET-26-D.Carey at SEA 46. 26-D.Carey to SEA 46 for no gain (16-T.Lockett).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.92 EP
49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model