4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 83

Detroit Lions 3 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(:38) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to SEA 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 47 for 14 yards (95-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.59 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 83, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 41, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model