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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 54

Detroit Lions 3 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to SEA 14, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.53 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model