4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 64

Detroit Lions 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to SEA 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 33 for 13 yards (25-T.Riddick).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.06 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model