Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 79

Houston Texans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 14

(13:46) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to ATL 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-E.Weems to ATL 34 for 11 yards (51-J.Simon; 46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.09 EP
66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model