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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 46 yards to HOU 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-C.Shorts to HOU 30 for 7 yards (54-N.Stupar).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model