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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 35

Houston Texans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 28

What Actually Happened

(:17) 8-N.Novak 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model