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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 72

Houston Texans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 35

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-E.Weems to ATL 30 for 18 yards (59-W.Mercilus; 53-M.Bullough).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP