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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 45

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 24-D.Freeman right end to HOU 44 for 1 yard (75-V.Wilfork).

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.31 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model